8 Energy Resources and Use : The Present Situation , Possible Sustainable Paths to the Future , and the Thermodynamic Perspective

A major concern (or opportunity?): The price of oil was growing very rapidly, from $28 in 2003 to $38/barrel in 2005 and occasionally to above $80 in 2006 and peaking at $147 in 2008, but then precipitously dropping to $40 by the end of 2008. The peak price is 1–2 orders of magnitude higher than the cost of extraction, possibly meaning that financial speculation is overwhelming supply and demand and all technical improvements. In 2007, world primary energy-resources use rose by 2.4%, with the increase rate slightly dropping (Fig. 8.1), but is likely to rise again soon, as the large developing countries in Asia keep improving their standard of living; China’s rose by 7.7% (lowest since 2002), India’s by 6.8%, and the United States’ by 1.6%, Japan’s dropped by 0.9%, and EU’s dropped by 2.2% (EU is the European Union). The reserves-to-production (R/P) ratio remains rather constant: ∼40 for oil, ∼60 for gas, and 200+ for coal, and mostly rising (Figs. 8.2 and 8.3)! There are probably sufficient oil and gas for this century and coal for two or more. Tar sands and oil shales are becoming more attractive and available in quantities probably exceeding those of oil and gas. Nuclear power produces ∼16% of world electricity; the number of reactors is increasing very slightly; public perception is improving, new government initiatives started, but the same problems remain. Renewable energy resources can satisfy ∼2 orders of magnitude more than the world energy demand, but negative impacts are not inconsequential. Wind